October 2004 Archives It's like deja vu all over againOctober 07, 2004 — It works well for Seinfeld and The West Wing, so I'm hoping it works well for smandel.com. Since I've been pretty busy recently, I haven't had much time to write new material. And because people are requesting I post something, I have decided that I will now post reruns of some classic blog entries. RERUN: Well, gosh, what are the chances?October 07, 2004 — Originally posted 09-11-2003. People seem to get a real kick out of situations they perceive as being extraordinarily unlikely. 'Well gosh, what are the chances?,' we often say. While it's often asked rhetorically, it's sometimes easy enough to calculate the probability. And I think when we do or when we really think about it, we may find that these so-called unlikely events are not as unlikely as we may believe. I recently cut my right index finger while removing staple. My initial reaction was 'Damn it -- that's my typing finger. That's just my luck; I'm always cutting my typing finger.' There's nothing truly strange here, aside from that fact that I still type with one finger. The reason is that the index finger on my dominant hand is the one I use most frequently. I'm therefore more likely to injure it. In addition, when something happens to my pinky finger, it doesn't make a big impression on me. So I'm also overestimating the frequency of the noteworthy situation. In some cases, an actual probability is to easy to calculate. While tailgating in Philly, we got 6 cheesesteaks -- 4 wit whiz, 2 wit provolone. Shaina wanted whiz. The first one she opened was provolone. Before opening the next one she said she hoped it was whiz. It was provolone. Rhetorically, she said 'what are the chances?' Obnoxiously, I instantly responded, 1 in 5 (for the second one). The chances of them both being provolone is 1 in 15. That is indeed pretty unlikely and that's why we noticed. But for each unlikely event like that which happened, there were about 14 likely events that we probably never noticed. Probability calculations like this only work for random, independent events, as we will see with my next scenario. I've said it's weird how I fly with the same people every week and I rarely sit next to someone I know. Let's do math. First class has 16 seats and I typically know 3 other people. The chance of me sitting next to someone I know should be 20% (3/15). In reality, I know it's much less. Why? It's easy. It has to do with how the airline fills in the seats and how people select their seats. It's certainly not random, but rather computed by a highly complex algorithm that would be difficult to figure out with anecdotal evidence only. It seems like the seats get filled in to leave vacancies next to people when possible. My colleagues and I get upgraded and assigned seats at roughly the same time -- after paying first class passengers are assigned a seat. That, and if I see that I'm sitting next to Joel, I switch my seat ;-). All this probability is starting to hurt my brain. I think it hurts lots of people's brains... if they even understand it in the first place. That's why people sit around at a roulette table, looking at what's hit recently. We're amazed if we see a string of 10 reds, but we think it's perfectly normally if we see 5 alternations from black to red. The two events are just as likely. These examples explain why I believe that people who go around thinking they are just unlucky are severely mistaken. Sure, in some sense, you might be able to classify half the population as more lucky than not and the other half as more unlucky than not. But when it comes down to it, life is a collection of many individual events. These events are either truly random, under our control to some extent, or completely out of our control. The truly random events will follow the laws of probability -- over time, we'll see that approximately 10% of the time we could expect to experience a situation that is 10% likely. For those things that are in our control, we need to try our best to shift the odds into our favor and let mathematics take things from there. And as for things completely out of our control, we just need to say 'it is what it is' and move on. The People Have The PowerOctober 12, 2004 — Last week I saw Death Cab and Pearl Jam in Ohio, REM, John Fogerty, and Springsteen in Michigan, and Ben Harper and Dave Matthews Band in Wisconsin. And last night I saw these artists, and many others from the Vote for Change tour, in my office and in my living room. Thanks to the radio and the Internet, I was able to rock out to the finale concert. And what a rock out it was. The show was, in a word, fridiculous. To see Springsteen and Vedder and Matthews and Stipe all singing together was amazing. And to see them unite to help bring about the change that this country desperately needs was quite inspiring. Just a reminder to everyone to make sure you vote. If you need an absentee ballot, get on that right away. To quote Eddie, "Voting is just like having a kid and raising it up right. It's taking part in evolution. Stand and be counted. It's evolution, baby."  October 17, 2004 — Actually, it hasn't been that bad (just a little busy). And I did take a picture when REM and Springsteen played that song together a few weeks ago. Anyway, I've still been taking pictures. September was a pretty random month so I've gathered all my pictures from September (and actually early October) and put them all in one new gallery. It contains all kinds of stuff like Corey's departure, hanging out in Madison, riding my bike, Farmer's Market, Willy Street Fair, Betty Lou, Vote for Change concert weekend, and IMPACT Day.  October 18, 2004 — Pictures from weekend in Ithaca are online.  October 24, 2004 — Time for some new pictures.
October 30, 2004 — On Monday morning, the rumors started to circulate. By Tuesday, the advance team was working out the logistics and the secret service was securing the area. And on Wednesday, the street outside my office was being prepared to host Thursday’s John Kerry rally, which included the Foo Fighters and The Boss himself.
When Thursday arrived, it was clear that there was no work that would get done that day. Many of us assembled on the porch of the office, which was even closer to the stage than the press box was. We watched in amazement as 80,000 people crowded West Washington Avenue from Bassett street all the way to the capitol. While I took a few pictures before the event started, my camera was completely non-functional from the moment the rally began until approximately 7 pm that evening. It was the only time in three years that my camera didn't work and it was the most inconvenient of times. But thanks to a smandel-Teske joint venture, smandel.com is still able to provide complete coverage of the event. Thanks, Amy! After some opening band played, there was a series of speeches by local politicians – Mayor Dave, Tammy Baldwin, Herb Kohl, Russ Feingold, and Governor Jim Doyle. The Foo Fighter played three songs. Doyle's introduction to the Boss made many clever, yet cheesy, references to Springsteen songs. The Boss said that would be Doyle's last time serving as him opening act. He played Promised Land and No Surrender with his guitar and his harmonica. Some guy screamed out "BRUUUUCE" at all the right moments. OK, that guy was me.
His speech was so inspiring, some guy even screamed out "KERRRRYYY!" a few times. (OK, me again) And as Kerry talked out how we need a president who believes in science, a president who is committed to science, there was a passionate scream of "SCIENNNNNCE!" that came from the crowd. (Uhh... I couldn’t contain myself) As Kerry concluded, confetti flew from the sky and "No Surrender" blasted through the speakers. Kerry shook hands and held babies. It was a great American moment. |
Between my fascination with presidential politics and the secret service, my strong support of John and Kerry, and, of course, my complete obsession with Bruce Springsteen, I couldn't quite contain my excitement. Throughout the days leading up to the event, I frequently gazed out the window to observe metal detectors being set up in our parking lot, the stage being assembled in front of the office, and bomb-sniffing dogs patrolling the premises. I even helped with the preparations by spelling out B-R-U-C-E-! in big letters throughout the windows of our building.
Kerry came out and delivered an excellent speech with much more charisma than he seems to have on TV. He made several shout-outs to The Boss, which was amazing. BRUUUUCE! He even joked that when George Bush heard the Boss was with Kerry, he thought people were referring to Dick Cheney. It was the speech we've all heard many times before – at the convention, at the debates, and as sound bites on the evening news. Nevertheless, it was great to hear it in person and to witness tens of thousands of people cheering, applauding, and waving signs in the air. And by the way, John Kerry is enormous.